Countdown statistics based on an average block generation time of approximately 10 minutes show that progress toward the next bitcoin block reward halving is over 60%. However, while most half-life countdown clocks utilize a 10-minute average, countdowns utilizing the latest block interval of approximately 7 minutes and 65 seconds indicate that the half-life may occur in 2023.
Faster block intervals suggest that bitcoin’s half-life could occur in 2023
Just recently, with a block height of 757,214 mined on October 5, 2022, Bitcoin’s total hash rate hit an all-time high (ATH) of 321.15 exahashes per second (EH/s). Recently, block intervals have been faster than normal and well below the 10-minute average.
The speed at which 2,016 blocks are found between difficulty adjustments determines the difficulty, and the current block interval suggests there is a large difficulty jump. Now, prior to the next difficulty increase, hash rates continue to be strong, with block times at the time of writing .
The next retargeting of mining difficulty is scheduled to occur around October 10, 2022. If block times remain faster than normal after the retarget, the protocol’s block reward halving is very likely to occur in 2023. bitcoinsensus.com statistics show that with a block interval of 7:65 minutes, the halving could occur around December 19, 2023. Possibly.
Bitcoinsensus.com further shows a half-life based on the average 10-minute rule, indicating that the half-life will occur on May 1, 2024. Most countdown calculatorsapply the average 10-minute rule, and other data points suggest that the half-life may occur onApril 20, 2024.