Grayscale Investments explains that there could be another 250 days of the current bearish crypto market, citing patterns from past cycles. Also, “Bitcoin is 222 days from an all-time high, which means that a downward or sideways price move could last another 5-6 months,” the world’s largest digital asset manager elaborates.
Grayscale’s Crypto Market Outlook
Grayscale Investments, the world’s largest digital asset manager, this week released areporttitled “Bear Markets in Perspective.”
The company explains that ” The length of each market cycle, time to peak and trough, and recovery time to previous all-time highs may suggest that the current market may resemble previous cycles, which resulted in the crypto industry continuing to innovate and push to new heights.”
The full report is as follows.
On average, a crypto market cycle lasts ~4 years, or about 1,275 days.
Most bitcoiners are familiar with market cycles based on bitcoin half-cycles, but Grayscale defines an overall crypto market cycle that operates on a nearly four-year cycle.
explained the digital asset manager.” While there are different ways to identify the crypto market cycle, the Bitcoin price can be used as a proxy to quantitatively define the cycle when the realized price moves below the market price (the current transaction price of the asset).”
“As of June 13, 2022, the realized price of bitcoin crossed below the market price, indicating that we may have officially entered a bear market,” Grayscale explained.
The report goes on to explain that in the 2012 cycle, there were 303 days in the zone where the realized price was below the market price of bitcoin; in the 2016 cycle, there were 268 days in the zone.
Noting that in the 2020 cycle, there were only 21 days in this zone, the digital asset manager noted.
Compared to previous cycles, we may see another ~250 days of high-value buying opportunities.
He further noted that the crypto market cycle has taken about 180 days longer to reach its peak each time.
“From peak to trough, the 2012 and 2016 cycles lasted about 4 years, 1290 and 1257 days respectively, with 391 days for a 73% decline in 2012 and 364 days for an 84% decline in 2016. It took.” Grayscale stated.
“In the current 2020 cycle, as of July 12, 2022, it is 1,198 days, which could represent about four more months left in this cycle before realized prices cross back above market prices.” The company continued, elaborating.
Bitcoin is 222 days from an all-time high, which means that a downward or sideways price move could last another 5-6 months.
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