Noted economist David Rosenberg warned of a “crash landing” and impending recession in the US economy. Referring to a graph of the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index, he emphasized Take a good look at this graph and say we are headed for a “soft” or “no” landing. It is more like a ‘crash’ landing,” he stressed.
Economists expect a crash landing
Prominent economist David Rosenberg warned in a tweet last week that the U.S. economy could be headed for a crash landing. Rosenberg is president and chief economist at Rosenberg Research. Previously, he was chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff, a private wealth management firm, and chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch, New York.
On Thursday, he shared a chart on Twitter showing the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s outlook for the manufacturing economy since 1968, writing
Take a closer look at this chart and tell me if we are headed for a “soft” or “no” landing. It is more like a “crash landing”.
Rosenberg further noted that the Philadelphia Federal Reserve has in the past accurately predicted U.S. recessions with 100% accuracy. He writes:
Philly Fed at the level of 8-8 with recession calls and no head fakes.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is the third Federal Reserve District, home to over 13.3 million people in Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania It is based on a monthly business outlook survey of manufacturers in the Reserve District. The survey has been conducted monthly since May 1968. The U.S. index rose one point to -23.2 in March.
Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at asset management firm Creative Planning, similarly took to Twitter in February to explain how the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has accurately predicted recessions in the past, saying.
In the past (data since 1968), when this index was at or below current levels, it was when the US economy was in or approaching recession.
Prominent figures in the financial industry have predicted a U.S. economic crash and a severe recession. Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad,” recently warned that “there is a crash landing ahead. Michael Barry, an investor in “The Big Short,” compares the current banking turmoil to the Panic of 1907. Economist Peter Schiff predicts that the current financial crisis will be worse than 2008. Meanwhile, venture capitalist Balaji Srinivasan said Friday that hyperinflation is happening now and predicted that the price of bitcoin will jump to $1 million within 90 days.
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