Ukraine War Reached Prediction Markets Too

CoinPrologue

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Destroyed Russian trucks. Source: @UAWeapons

The war in Ukraine continues. On the one hand, there is Russia’s well-equipped army, and on the other – the stubborn fighters of Ukraine, whose morale has been boosted by the recent "strategic" victories. In short, there is a lot of uncertainty.

With this uncertainty, some speculators make predictions about key events using prediction markets, essentially betting on the outcome of the war.

On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market where speculators can bet on the outcome of real events, traders are speculating whether Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be president of Ukraine on 2022. Interestingly, 24 hours earlier, 64% stated that Zelensky will not be president that day. However, in the meantime, this figure has decreased to 53%.

Users can bet on the event by buying a contract for "Yes" or "No"." The value of the contract depends on the number of traders for and against the resolution.

For example, when 64% said Zelensky would not be president at the same time, the value of this contract was USD 0.64. However, now that 53% say so, the value has also fallen to USD 0.53.

"When the official UA source [.] Says Zelenskyy is president at the time of dissolution, the market will resolve "Yes." Otherwise it will solve "No," Polymarket said.

This speculation has so far achieved a trading volume (the sum of all bought and sold contracts) of USD

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Destroyed Russian trucks. Source: @UAWeapons

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Futuur, another prediction market, has included a wider range of questions, they said in a press release shared with * *. The platform’s most popular prediction is speculation about whether Vladimir Putin would serve his entire term as Russian president until 2024, which has drawn bets from 938 people. As expected, 72% voted "yes"."

The second most popular speculation of the platform is about the outcome of the war: "Will Russia take Kiev by force by the end of 2022?" Of those who bet, 54% said "no "."

The market will decide on this basis: "If the Russian Armed Forces Kiev by the 31st From 2022, the result of this market will be "Yes".

Another seemingly controversial speculation relates to Russia and the global banking payment network SWIFT: "Will Russia leave the SWIFT payment network by March?" In response, 62% bet "No."

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