Bitcoin hash rates are running hot despite the price drop and recent increase in difficulty. In fact, blocks are being discovered faster than the 10-minute interval average, and because of this factor, the network’s reward half-life may come sooner than expected; some half-life counters utilizing the 10-minute average state that the half-life is expected in May or April 2024, but exact block half-life counters using interval times indicate that the half-life could occur as early as March 1, 2024.
The half-life indicated by the block interval may be much closer than many expect
While the cryptocurrency community is focused on The Merge, the hashing power behind the Bitcoin network is higher than normal, making the block interval faster. There are currently 244.62 exahashes per second (EH/s) dedicated to the blockchain, and on September 4, 2022, it tapped a quick lifetime high at 301.45 EH/s with a block high of 752,510.
Just before the end of August, in Bitcoin.com Newsreportedabout Bitcoin block times being much faster than the 10-minute average. if block times are faster than the 10-minute average and remain consistently faster for two weeks before the difficulty change, the shift would increase the difficulty.
This happened on August 31, when the bitcoin network printed printed recorded the second largest difficulty increase in 2022. The difficulty increase did not slow down the minor, and the next difficulty change expected on September 15 is is estimated to increase is estimated to increase again by at least 3%.
According to data from bitcoincensus.com, the half-life is expected to be March 2, 2024, or 509 days from now. Block times are much faster than the 10-minute interval, and on September 11 the average block timewas less than 8 minutes. block discovery speeds made it so that the halving of the bitcoin network may come much sooner than most expected. However, this estimate is based on data and velocity now recorded and still has over a year to go and could change indefinitely.
Today’scase data from bitcoincensus.comand metrics from nicehash.com indicates that Bitcoin’s fourth halving event will take place in March 2024. This date is well before the often used estimate of May 3, 2024 utilize a block interval of 10 minutes to calculate the half-life.
In fact, bitcoinsensus.com shows two counters, one based on the current block time (8.50 minutes) and one based on a 10-minute average per block. Bitcoinsensus.com estimates the current half-life based on actual block time to be March 2, 2024. Therefore, the half-life of the bitcoin block is estimated to be 509 days, not 598 days.
Nicehash.com’s half-life counter could take place on March 1, 2024, or one day before the estimate given on the bitcoinsensus.com web portal indicates that for every 210,000 blocks mined, the block reward will be halved.
The current block reward is 6.25 BTCper block, and by the time the next half-life takes place, miners will earn 3.125 coins per block after the half-life. Since the value of bitcoin typically increases prior to the halving of block rewards, the nearness of the halving suggests that the price may rise sooner than expected.
Image credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons
